A synopsis of Dieter Helm’s The Carbon Crunch. Part 1 of 3.

The failure of de-industrialisation

In the 25 years since Rio, annual carbon emissions growth has gone from 1.5ppm to the current level of 3 ppm. From a pre-Industrial Revolution concentration of roughly 275 ppm of carbon in the atmosphere, we are rapidly approaching 400 ppm. Since 400-450 ppm is roughly associated with 2C warming, we are on our way to something worse. All those years of talking – Rio 1990, Kyoto 1997, Copenhagen 2009, Durban 2011, Doha 2012, Warsaw 2013, Lima 2014 – has made minimal impact.

In the countries that have implemented carbon policies – largely Europe (as the US and Canada required China to join in before they joined) – essentially the effect has been to de-industrialise. Manufacture of steel, fertilisers and aluminium has been moved to other countries, which often have lower energy efficiency. Countries then import the goods that the policies have caused to be exported.

The UK has reduced its carbon production by 15% since 1990 – a very impressive result. But carbon consumption – carbon production plus the carbon produced in creating the goods that are imported, i.e. the real carbon footprint – has increased by 19%. The UK has just exported its carbon production to China which is fuelled by a huge growth in coal consumption.

A theme in the push for renewables is that fossil fuels will run out, and on the way will become increasingly expensive. A forecast rise in oil, gas and coal prices is assumed in many energy policies, making renewables more attractive. In the UK it is often asserted that renewables will be cheaper than fossil fuels by 2020. Unfortunately fossil fuels are in fact abundant, with recoverable reserves rising every year in spite of production. Gas and in particular coal (with a reserve to production ratio of over 200 years) are especially abundant. Fossil fuel prices are around the same level as 30 years ago.